The "Bradley Effect" not as important as the "ashamed conservative" vote.
October 20th 2008 04:39
Today's Republican Party has pretty much been fully exposed as a sham, a play on the American people that has damaged everything from the economy to America's image abroad to health care. The massive redistribution of wealth from everyone else to those at the very top has thrown an imbalanced wrench into the works that will take years to correct. Still, the polls aren't as dramatic as the win will be, in my opinion. As long as dirty tricks and election fraud are kept down somewhat, this election will prove to be a landslide for Barack Obama.
Some concern has been raised about the so-called "Bradley Effect" being a problem. If you don't know what the term refers to, it's about an election for governor in California in 1982. Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, was leading in the polls going into the race but ended up losing the election to the Republican challenger. The Bradley Effect got the name because Tom Bradley was black, and his opponent white. Pundits speculated Bradley lost because some voters who had even expressed support before the election decided in the privacy of the voting booth to reject a black candidate.
Since 1982 sociologists and others have studied the depth of the effect, and whether it was more due to the description put forth, or bad polling. While the debate hasn't been ended completely, most agree there was some level of white voter resistance to a black candidate, no matter what the politics. Will it happen again on the national stage? Probably - at least in a limited way. The conservatives are doing all they can to inject racial components into the election.
I don't think it will be a big factor. On the contrary, I fully expect a different "effect" that finds conservatives who would never admit it to friends, family, or church, voting for Barack Obama. When they find themselves alone with the vote, they will do what they feel is good for the country and go against their voting traditions. Will the number of rebel conservatives be enough to ensure a landslide for Obama?
There is a certain number of votes that will have to be better than 50 percent just to overcome the inherent cheat measures put into place by Bush, Rove, and company over the last 8 years. How big that number will end up having to be remains to be seen. In 2000 and 2004 a simple majority just wasn't enough, especially in Florida and Ohio. This time the lead for Obama looks too big and too spread out for him not to end up the winner.
What is still at question is just how much of a coattail effect Barack Obama will have. It will most likely be large where Obama wins thanks to so many new voters. Where he is victorious as a result of more swing voters and conservative defectors, look for the coattails to be small. In the end, I do think a filibuster-proof majority for Democrats is possible in the Senate. That would require a total of 80 Democrats holding Senate seats. Some think that's too rosy a scenario to wish for, but I think it is a least possible, if not even probable.
All in all, Obama supporters need not be too worried about the Bradley effect. They do, however, need to not be complacent. They need to show up in huge numbers, and they need to watch states where the vote count differs from the exit polls. And, should the worst occur and this election be stolen, they need to be ready to challenge the theft on every level.
Some concern has been raised about the so-called "Bradley Effect" being a problem. If you don't know what the term refers to, it's about an election for governor in California in 1982. Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, was leading in the polls going into the race but ended up losing the election to the Republican challenger. The Bradley Effect got the name because Tom Bradley was black, and his opponent white. Pundits speculated Bradley lost because some voters who had even expressed support before the election decided in the privacy of the voting booth to reject a black candidate.
Since 1982 sociologists and others have studied the depth of the effect, and whether it was more due to the description put forth, or bad polling. While the debate hasn't been ended completely, most agree there was some level of white voter resistance to a black candidate, no matter what the politics. Will it happen again on the national stage? Probably - at least in a limited way. The conservatives are doing all they can to inject racial components into the election.
I don't think it will be a big factor. On the contrary, I fully expect a different "effect" that finds conservatives who would never admit it to friends, family, or church, voting for Barack Obama. When they find themselves alone with the vote, they will do what they feel is good for the country and go against their voting traditions. Will the number of rebel conservatives be enough to ensure a landslide for Obama?
There is a certain number of votes that will have to be better than 50 percent just to overcome the inherent cheat measures put into place by Bush, Rove, and company over the last 8 years. How big that number will end up having to be remains to be seen. In 2000 and 2004 a simple majority just wasn't enough, especially in Florida and Ohio. This time the lead for Obama looks too big and too spread out for him not to end up the winner.
What is still at question is just how much of a coattail effect Barack Obama will have. It will most likely be large where Obama wins thanks to so many new voters. Where he is victorious as a result of more swing voters and conservative defectors, look for the coattails to be small. In the end, I do think a filibuster-proof majority for Democrats is possible in the Senate. That would require a total of 80 Democrats holding Senate seats. Some think that's too rosy a scenario to wish for, but I think it is a least possible, if not even probable.
All in all, Obama supporters need not be too worried about the Bradley effect. They do, however, need to not be complacent. They need to show up in huge numbers, and they need to watch states where the vote count differs from the exit polls. And, should the worst occur and this election be stolen, they need to be ready to challenge the theft on every level.
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Comment by RubySoho
Music Zone
Thought Zone
Oh yeah, some conservatives are making the switch. And not afraid to say it.
http://rednecksforobama.net/
Comment by Morgan Bell
Science News
Deep Pencil
Business News
Movie Train
Artist Quirk
i guess there is always some element of family and friends being present when the pollster calls?
very interesting analysis Jeff!